Although the overnight Renminbi rebounded to about 6.93 yuan against the dollar, it is unlikely that the dollar/renminbi will break away from the psychological barrier towards 7.00, according to a report released on Friday by Bank of Singapore Dahua. For most market participants, it is only a matter of time before the renminbi falls to 7.00, especially near it. Periodic data show that the negative impact of Sino-US trade frictions has begun to emerge, and the economy of the Mainland of China has significantly declined.
In terms of monetary policy, the People's Bank of China has adopted a more targeted easing attitude, although it has not announced a change in its "robust neutral" policy. The Bank continues to expect further reductions in the reserve requirement ratio, possibly in December when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, or before the Spring Festival next year.
The Bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates once this year and three times next year, raising the federal funds rate to a range of 3.00-3.25% by the end of next year.
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